ENVISIONING 2040: YOUTH AND SCENARIO SUBJECTIVITY IN KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

This paper offers a cultural-sociological examination of the future Kazakhstan's youth envisions for 2040. Drawing on the methodology of social foresight and the data from twenty focus groups conducted in five regions of the country, the authors develop scenario models in which emotions, identity, and moral aspirations are intertwined. The primary focus is on youth as agents of scenario subjectivity, capable of envisioning alternative future pathways and articulating them as expressions of cultural involvement. The study identifies four scenarios, each reflecting a distinct emotional tone and symbolic framework. The paper illustrates the potential of cultural foresight as a hybrid research framework that integrates story analysis, scenario modeling, and emotional mapping methodologies. The conclusions are significant for sociological and futurological discussions as well as for the development of cultural policy that acknowledges youth as co-creators of the future's symbolic order.